Best Actor:

For a while, Brendan Fraser’s soulful performance in The Whale seemed to be the frontrunner. A video of his reaction to a standing ovation at the Venice Film Festival went viral. Yet The Whale has also faced criticism for the film’s insensitive portrayal of Fraser’s morbidly obese character. More notably, The Whale managed to score nominations only for Fraser’s performance, Hong Chau’s performance, and makeup and hairstyling, amidst several films in this category receiving many more nominations. Also making a break from the indie world into the Best Actor category was Paul Mescal for Aftersun. Aftersun may be the most critically acclaimed of all the films here, and Mescal’s performance is a complex and sensitive portrayal of a man suffering from mental illness. But Aftersun’s lack of nominations will have to compete with the juggernaut that is The Banshees of Inisherin, one of the most nominated films of this year.

Austin Butler’s performance falls in the long tradition of actors getting nominated for playing real people, but the film Elvis is so stylized and obviously Baz Luhrmann’s that it can be easy to forget that this film cleaves biopic conventions. Butler also managed to snag a Golden Globe, so he shouldn’t be entirely discounted. Living boasts an elevated pedigree with Japanese-British novelist Kazuo Ishiguro penning the script for this adaptation of Akira Kurosawa’s Ikiru. Bill Nighy gives a quiet yet dignified performance as a bureaucrat trying to make peace with his impending death by finding meaning in the time that he has left. Yet he is unlikely to take this category due to the relative lack of presence Living has otherwise in this awards run. Colin Farrell has had a brilliant year in 2022, starring in four films, showcasing his great range, and it seems that his time has come to be recognized.

Prediction: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Best Actress:

Perhaps the most divisive category this year, the events that led to this year’s Best Actress lineup caused the Academy to conduct a review of the procedures that lead to nominations after a grassroots campaign in support of Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the little-seen independent film To Leslie was successful. Michelle Williams also managed to outmaneuver traditional paths for nominations with her performance in The Fabelmans, recognized by many other groups as a supporting performance, getting a spot in the lead category.

Demonstrating a more standard route to a nomination, Cate Blanchett, though generally refusing to campaign for herself this year, has achieved her eighth Oscar nomination (two of which have resulted in wins) for her titular role in Tár. It is also the tenth Best Picture nominee she has starred in, making her one of the most successful actors of all time in terms of Academy recognition. Michelle Yeoh’s performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once earned her a first Oscar nomination, only the second Best Actress nomination ever given to an Asian woman. The widespread love for the film has many predicting she will take home the prize. Finally, though Blonde was a divisive film, Ana de Armas received her first Oscar nomination this year for her performance as Marilyn Monroe.

Prediction: Cate Blanchett (Tar)

Best International Feature Film:

The Best International Feature Film category is notable for what it has left out. Famed director Park Chan-wook from South Korea was snubbed for Decision to Leave, and India failed to choose RRR, which had significant success in international markets, including America, as its submission. Eo is the only movie here from a director that might be familiar to Western cinephiles, Jerzy Skolimowski. This homage to Au Hasard Balthasar spans multiple storylines and strata of society and was also a big hit with critics in the United States, which may lend it some juice in this awards race. Argentina, 1985, a legal drama in which a team of lawyers works to take down members of the military dictatorship in power during this time, won unexpectedly at the Golden Globes. Lukas Dhont’s Close is about the ever-timely subject of young men being bullied for their sexuality but its modest scale and somewhat restrained directing style may work against its favor. The Quiet Girl was Ireland’s first ever nomination in this category and earned another distinction by being filmed mostly in the Irish language. This gentle tale of a withdrawn girl may be a little too reserved for Academy voters to make a real impression. All Quiet on the Western Front will most likely be popular among non-US voters, who make a significant part of the Academy. All Quiet has already been heavily nominated at the BAFTAs and there is a significant amount of crossover between the BAFTA voting body and the Academy’s.

Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front