Best Supporting Actor:

Across all the acting categories this year, first time nominees were favored over the repeat nominations and career recognitions that have been so popular in years past. In the Supporting Actor category, Judd Hirsch is the only nominee who has been nominated before, with his role in The Fabelmans earning him his first nod since 1980, breaking Henry Fonda’s record for the longest gap between nominations and surprising many by beating out co-star Paul Dano for the recognition. Brian Tyree Henry, regarded by many as being snubbed a few years back when he wasn’t recognized for his role in If Beale Street Could Talk, has finally earned his first nomination for Causeway, the film’s sole nomination and the latest in a long string of films he was easily the best part of. The Banshees of Inisherin had a strong showing across all categories and earned Best Supporting Actor nominations for Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson, two of five Irish actors being recognized this year. Ke Huy Quan rounds out the list as the probable winner, having received most of the precursor awards for his performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once. First rising to prominence as a child actor in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies, he spent decades out of the limelight due to a lack of roles for Asian men in Hollywood productions before being inspired to return after the success of Crazy Rich Asians, with Everything Everywhere All at Once being the first of a few productions he has been involved in since and signaling the beginning of what promises to be a major comeback.

Prediction: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Best Supporting Actress:

The Best Supporting Actress category is the most diverse category, especially compared to the other acting awards. Condon, Curtis, and Hsu are first time nominees, which is perhaps most surprising for Curtis who has been acting for decades. Angela Bassett was last nominated back in 1993 for What’s Love Got to Do With It for portraying Tina Turner. Hong Chau was last nominated for her role in Downsizing. Not unlike The Whale, Downsizing courted controversy in its day, but for much different reasons. The concerns over fatphobia over The Whale threaten to overwhelm any serious consideration for Chau for The Whale.

While Everything Everywhere All at Once has been both a critical and Academy darling, the two nominees are most likely going to split the vote between them. Kerry Condon has a good chance to take home the gold since she is also part of a heavily nominated film, but the hype has been mostly around Colin Farrell and director McDonagh. Bassett may be the strongest contender here because she is the sole acting nominee from her film, and a win for her may be a symptom of the “legacy vote,” in which respected professionals in the film industry finally get awards for decades of outstanding work rather than just for the film itself. Bassett brings real authority and gravitas to her role, but she should have been nominated and have won many times before this year.

Prediction: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

Best Original Screenplay:

Best Original Screenplay has no surprises this year with all five nominees coming from the Best Picture lineup (and Elvis being the sole eligible Best Picture nominee to not receive a nomination in this category) which should come as little shock given that the Adapted category has been more likely to include less recognized films in recent years. Everything Everywhere All at Once continues its domination with one of its eleven nominations here, a first for its writers/directors, the Daniels. Meanwhile, Steven Spielberg, a long time Academy favorite, also earned his first nomination for writing for The Fabelmans, alongside frequent collaborator Tony Kushner, earning his third (all for Spielberg films). Tár, Todd Field’s return to feature filmmaking after 16 years away, earned Field his third writing nomination, giving him a perfect track record with every film of his so far having received a nomination for its writing.

After a break last year, the Oscars are back to recognizing Palme d’Or winners with Ruben Östlund’s first English language film, Triangle of Sadness, netting him three nominations, all firsts for him, though his earlier Palme winner The Square did earn a nomination in the Foreign Language category. Martin McDonagh, the Irish playwright and filmmaker who first got Academy recognition in 2006 with his short film Six Shooter, continues to be a favorite with The Banshees of Inisherin gaining him his third nomination for Best Original Screenplay alongside four acting nominations and possibly setting him up for his first win here for a feature film.

Prediction: Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)