Best Picture:

The second year the Academy has required ten films to be nominated for Best Picture has been a return to a more standard lineup for the organization. After a few COVID-impacted years saw many films bypass theaters entirely and, last year, CODA became the first streaming film to take home the top prize, this year only one film came from a streamer. All Quiet on the Western Front takes that spot as Netflix’s most recent bid for the prize. Racking up nine nominations, the second most of any film this year, the remake of the film that won Best Picture 90 years ago is also the lone nominee not in the English language. Though it continues the recent trend of recognizing international films and streaming films, it seems likely it will be only the most recent in a string of Netflix films to perform well across the board but miss out on winning Best Picture.

Favored by many to win and earning the most nominations of any film this year is Everything Everywhere All at Once, an absurdist multiverse film from the Daniels that has been beloved by audiences as a surprise hit at the box office and with awards groups, bringing four members of its cast to their first Oscar nominations. The first of the nominees to be released, premiering last March, it continues to show that a beloved film can have real legs and the Oscar season is no longer confined only to the last part of the calendar year.

The Banshees of Inisherin ties for second most nominations with nine. Martin McDonagh’s follow up to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, a film that received a slew of nominations but left McDonagh himself empty handed, is another dark comedy that has been less divisive and featured a slew of excellent performances the Academy has also recognized. Steven Spielberg has been nominated by the Academy many times but the last twenty years have seen a slump in his recognition, with many films flying under the Academy’s radar nearly entirely, until his return last year with West Side Story and this year’s The Fabelmans. The film shows various scenes from his childhood, lending faces to the stories that have influenced many of his classic films, possibly positioning it to be another late career recognition from the Academy.

The musical biopic has long been an Academy favorite genre, especially in acting categories for the last two decades, and Elvis has taken the slot this year, gaining the second most nominations ever for a film in the genre while highlighting the life of of the titular superstar in Baz Luhrmann’s typically gaudy fashion.

Films about class struggles have been another genre playing well to the Academy recently and Triangle of Sadness, this year’s Palme d’Or winner, continues that streak while also continuing to look outside of the United States with a dark satire about the empty lives of celebrities and other wealthy people. Tár is a more traditional Academy pick: a drama following a famed (Oscar winning) conductor who is accused of abuse, held together by an extraordinary performance from Cate Blanchett. A highly entertaining film, it’s the type of work so many other “Oscar bait” movies have tried and failed to mimic.

Women Talking is the biggest surprise of the nominations, scoring only one other nomination. The only film in this year’s lineup directed by a woman, in a year where many of the nominees are particularly commercial, it especially stands out from the bunch with its bleak cinematography and even bleaker story about women in a religious community discussing how to confront the constant sexual assault they have been subjected to.

For many years, the highest grossing films were regularly recognized by the Academy but recently this has been less popular. Whether because the Oscars are out of touch, as many claim, or because the highest grossing movies are increasingly cookie-cutter cash grabs, the gap had never been wider, until this year. Top Gun: Maverick is this year’s first mega blockbuster to get the nomination. Continuing to hold the top spot at the box office week after week for much of the year, while Marvel’s fare came and went with barely a blip, Maverick made its way into the top ten highest grossing movies of all time and proved everyone wrong who claimed it was a mistake to hold onto it through the pandemic and invest so much money into the sequel to a film from so many years ago while validating Tom Cruise’s commitment to risking his life for the cinematic experience. Finally, Avatar: The Way of Water has come close to replicating the success of the first, making its way to being the third highest grossing film of all time (at the time of writing) and pioneering underwater motion capture. Its massive success is another reminder that anyone who underestimates James Cameron will end up looking foolish, but also that CGI is a powerful tool that can create stunning new worlds if only the artists are given time and care is put into the work. Regardless of what film wins, this year’s nominees show that, across a wide range of genres and budgets, quality cinema is still out there and many people still want to see it, no matter what so many would claim.

Predictions: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director:

The films in this category were either locks or unsurprising choices especially since all of them received multiple nominations. Martin McDonagh may start becoming known as the director that gets his actors awards nominations with both Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri scoring wins for Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell and the entire main cast of Banshees of Inisherin getting nominated this year. Spielberg’s nomination may be due partly to the fact that The Fabelmans feels like a summation of Spielberg’s concerns and obsessions as a filmmaker. And Todd Field’s nomination would never have occurred to anyone who remembers him as a director who hasn’t made a film in over a decade and had no idea that he had this type of film in him.

Daniel Kwan and Scheinert, known as the Daniels, probably have the most juice coming into this awards season based on how well Everything Everywhere All at Once played with Academy members and with audiences in general. The real surprise in this competitive field is Ruben Östlund. While Triangle of Sadness did receive early buzz by taking home the Palme D’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, it hadn’t necessarily sustained that buzz as much as every other film nominated. One could perhaps attribute to this to the resurging popularity of class narratives, though Triangle of Sadness is arguably a messier (literally and figuratively) version of that story than, say, Parasite. It will be hard to combat the surprising juggernaut that Everything Everywhere has become though.

Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Best Cinematography:

Cinematography is one of the most exciting races to follow this year, with a group of nominees quite different from those of other voting bodies making it difficult to predict. All Quiet on the Western Front performed exceedingly well in the craft categories, also picking up a deserved nomination here for James Friend who presents a harrowing depiction of war. Tár also received another nomination here, adding to a total that surprised many but is wholly deserved and gives Florian Hoffmeister his first nomination in the category. Alejandro González Iñárritu’s films have been quite successful with the Academy in the past, winning him two consecutive awards for Best Director, but his most recent film, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, has been far more divisive and received only one nomination, Best Cinematography for Darius Khondji. Though the cinematographer has had a long career working with many highly successful directors, this is only his second nomination in the category. Sam Mendes, also a perennial Academy favorite, only managed to score one nomination with his latest, Empire of Light. Its cinematographer, Roger Deakins, has now earned 15 nominations in the category, including two wins, one for previous work with Mendes on 1917. The final nomination, Mandy Walker’s for her work on Elvis, marks only the third time a woman has been nominated in this category. All three nominations have occurred since 2018 and seem to signal moves in the right direction but also highlight the extreme disparity that continues to exist in many fields.

Prediction: James Friend (All Quiet on the Western Front)